||Technical & Fundamental
||Mixture of EA & Manual
||15th Jun 2015
ARION - Master Account
Learn more about Arion by Odysseia Capital
Targets of the strategy are: Returns per month > 2%. Maximum historical DD% < 30%
ARION effectively addresses what Odysseia Capital thinks to be the TOP 10 investor´s concerns:
1- Capital preservation
2- Account long term longevity
3- Strong statistical evidence
4- Regular positive returns
5- No "hope/faith trading" (no trades maintained forever, hoping for future market reversals)
6- No risky approaches (no martingale, no grid)
7- Risk and Money Management
8- Strategy tested in a multibroker environment
9- Real financial commitment in the strategy from Signal Vendor
10- Affordable, competitive subscription
By committing to all the 10 above targets, ARION fills an empty spot in the signal trading landscape. In fact, at Odysseia Capital, we don´t know of any other vendor who offers such a complete set of features, aimed to provide our customers with peace of mind and real returns in exchange for a tightly controlled risk.
The following is a thorough explanation, we know. It will take our customers some time to go through it. However, how could we expect our clients to commit their capital to our strategy, if we didn't provide them with all the information we consider paramount for such an important financial decision of this sort ?
We stand by our objectives:
1 - CAPITAL PRESERVATION
This is the most important concern we have in our minds every day. Market foreseeable events are assessed on a weekly basis and decisions are made to whether pursue business as usual or to reduce or even stop trading around binary type of events. The aim is to preserve capital, even if, by doing that, we have to give away some great opportunities to make extra money trading around certain high impact events.
Furthermore, keeping capital preservation in mind, trade position sizing and risk management are fine tuned so that any given trade has limited impact potential in the overall capital.
Additionally the strategy is conceived to quickly recover after a drawdown period. We work hard, so that after a stronger drawdown period, the strategy is able to recover to previous levels within a reasonable period of time, allowing clients who were unfortunate to enter the period at the worst point (just before drawdown started to develop) to quickly recover from their losses.
Finally, in some instances, extreme unforeseen market events can occur (e.g. Black Swans). In any case and in any trading strategy, one can never exclude the possibility (as unlikely as it may be) of a margin call. Or even, due to poor broker risk control measures and extreme price movements, to totally exclude the chance that the investor will be faced with a situation where losses can eventually exceed initial investment. This could place the investor in a situation where he might be called by the broker to provide extra funds to close the loss gap. This situation, however, can be properly addressed with the selection of the right broker. We do have some broker preferences to properly address this important topic and protect our client´s financial position. Not many of other trading signal providers inform their clients about this possibilit and what actions should be taken to properly address it, but at Odysseia Capital we are obsessed with risk, so we cannot ignore (or allow our customers to ignore) this component of the risk by trading the markets with leveraged products.
Top priority is to preserve our clients' capital.
2 - ACCOUNT LONG TERM LONGEVITY
ARION is generating profits in a real money account since June 2015. The longevity of the strategy is aimed by very conservative trade sizing and constant performance monitoring and strategy adjustment/improvement over time.
In Odysseia Capital´s view, before choosing trading signals any investor should ask him/herself how sustainable are strategies and accounts showing very high monthly returns.The first question that always pops in our minds, is how long have such accounts withstood the test of time: weeks, months or years ? Frequently, such performance can only be achieved at the expense of higher capital risk exposure. This means that and so higher risk, exposing the account not only to the risk of trading in normal conditions, but more importantly to abnormal trading conditions that can expose the investors to the event of accounts margin calls, or even worse to be let in the position of losses higher than initial investment and thus to own extra funds to the broker hosting the account.
ARION is expected to show monthly returns somewhere in the range of 2% to 4% /month. Sure we could have decided to boost the average monthly performance by a 5 fold factor, and offer returns in the range of 10%-20% per month, but at the expense of taking the worst historical drawdown to a level above 80%, and so to the risk of being too close to a margin call and the end of the life span of the ARION broker account.
We are here for the long run, so long term longevity is a paramount target to Odysseia Capital.
3- STRONG STATISTICAL EVIDENCE
True, past results don't guarantee future results.
However past results and the amount of statistical evidence that a strategy is able to showcase to its prospective customers, might be one of the most important pieces of hard evidence to provide our clients with the necessary confidence to allow them an informed decision for a trading signal.
As you will be able to verify at ARION´s information page, this strategy can proudly show an enduring test in real money markets over thousands of trades, collecting real market returns in the thousands of pips.
At the moment of this notice (Jan 2017), ARION has:
- Been trading for more than 1 and half year
- Executed more than 3000 trades
- Collected more than 7500 pips at an average rate of over 400 pip/month
- Never had a temporary drawdown over 21% (February 2016)
- Maintained itself within profit targets with decreasing risk and market exposure over time.
The statistical evidence that ARION can endure the test of time is, in our view, overwhelming!
4 - POSITIVE REGULAR RETURNS
The strategy works in a manner so that a customer joining at any time has a good chance to see his/her investment grow in the short term. Many strategies present interesting average monthly returns, but digging deep in data, one can see that frequently these are due to good results concentrated in a small number of trading periods. Unlike other strategies at Odysseia Capital we work hard so that any given customer doesn't have to be so lucky that he/she needs to jump into the strategy at a given correct moment to benefit from it.
5 - NO "HOPE/FAITH TRADING"
ARION has an average trade duration of around 10 hours (data from Jan 2017). In general, any given trade will not be open more than 1 week.
This means that ARION, unlike other approaches to trading, doesn't rely on flawed human concepts like "hope" or "faith" of a market reversal, whenever the market develops itself against our trade and initial view. If the internal stop loss or profit target are not triggered, trades are quickly decided to close or maintain, but in any case aiming a short duration in the market. If a trade is showing itself to be a bad setup, either the trade will hit stop-loss or ARION will close it down even before SL is hit and move on to better trade setups.
"Hope trading" will also often lead to "martingale" or "grid" kind of trading (addressed in more detail below). In fact as a "grid/martingale" kinf of trader sees the market developing against his/her trade, he will not close the trades and will wait praying for a market reversal. However, because the trader will see losses mounting up and will doubt that a timely market reversal it will ever, he will have incentive to accelerate the moment to leave stressful trades either by "averaging down" with same position sizing (grid) or with ever larger positions (martingale). In any case, both of these approaches will lead to increased position sizing associated with a single trade setup, and thus a significant increase in risk. They can realistically result in significant losses, margin calls or even in losses above the invested capital if there are volatile price during the period when position sizes have been increased hoping for market reversal.
6 - NO RISKY APPROACHES (NO MARTINGALE / NO GRID)
At Odysseia Capital we don´t advocate martingale or grid kind of trading. In fact we aim to expose the flaws and risks of this approach to trading, as we consider both martingale and grid trading as highly risky and problematic for any investor with a long term view over his/her investment.
Sure, these approaches can result in very nice and smooth equity curves, but generally are prone to result in large/long drawdown periods. When entering the market in the wrong direction, both these strategies rely in opening extra positions with same size as initial (grid) or larger sizes (martingale), hoping for a market reversal that might never come. This faith or hope that the market will sometime in the future may result in a margin call and the loss of all invested funds. At best, these approaches will most surely result in prolonged drawdown periods, which might cause, not only stress and uncertainty of the development of the investment in investors' minds, but most importantly a strong lock-in factor, chaining the investor to the service until the market eventually reverses and he can recover his to his previous financial position.
Whenever customers come to us speaking of very nice equity curves and handsome monthly returns, we urge them to look for signs of grid or martingale trading. These can be:
- Prolonged periods of drawdown (divergence between equity and balance),
- Evidence by a simple analysis of the open trades and the trade history,
- or even regular monthly profits made at the expense of negative pips.
Recurrent trading months of negative pip performance with positive results in money terms is a strong indication that martingale techniques might be used, as the trading is relying in ever increasing positions to close a pending drawdown and not in real market reversal. With a martingale approach, a smaller reversal in pips can theoretically close a bigger gap in money terms, of course at a great expense of the trade - and account - risk.
In the long term, there is strong evidence that martingale and grid strategies have a very high likelihood to margin call the respective trading accounts.
Furthermore, both these approaches, in fact, directly violate one of the most basic rules of trading: "Never add to losers".
7- RISK AND MONEY MANAGEMENT
ARION has a maximum historical drawdown of 21% (February 2016). Even if the maximum targeted historical drawdown of 30% was never achieved, since March 2016 new features were introduced to the strategy to reduce the likelihood to ever return to a 20% or so drawdown level. This can be clearly verified by a simple analysis of position sizing vs returns before and after March 2016. A simple look to top graph in this page will show that returns are preserved but with much lower position sizing and so less strategy exposure to risk. Since March 2016, after new improvements have been introduced, effective maximum drawdown was around 14%.
Furthermore, as a risk management feature, the strategy parameters define that, as a standard, trades are set to risk between 0% and 2% of overall Account Balance.
Finally strategy is regularly assessed to improve performance, aiming to find sweet spot of maxim returns with minimum risk. Open these assessments regular fine tuning is introduced in the trading activity, either by re-adjusting positioning sizing or by introducing/removing subsets of the strategy to/from trading activity.
To preserve capital and find the best balance between risk and return (a balance that clients can also fine tune also with their own Simpletrader panel) is one of the tasks that takes more effort from the team managing ARION.
8- STRATEGY TESTED IN A MULTIBROKER ENVIRONMENT
One of the most decisive factors in trade copying is the selection of the right broker where to host the client account.
What would be the best broker for each trading strategy and each customer is a very hard task to accurately predict without a real market test. Tha's why ARION is currently being tested in a set of different brokers, so that our customers can assess what is the exact behavior of strategy in different brokerage environments and thus make an informed decision, as to what is the best broker for their specific case.
Still, regarding brokers. it's very important to underline that many trading signal vendors, or even other market participants, often recommend their customers with a specific broker. Often linked to these recommendations is some kind of affiliation/commercial relationship between who recommends and the broker, from which they profit whenever a trade is placed at the customer account. In plain terms, from each position that is opened in customer's account, the broker affiliate will profit - normally in proportion to position size - regardless if the trade closed in a profit or a loss.
Despite the above is a normal practice in this industry, at Odysseia Capital we believe this configures a strong conflict of interest, as it carries a wrong incentive to trade customer's account regardless of the quality of the trades. Odysseia Capital has decided early on, not to have any kind of affiliation with any broker.
Our only incentive is to provide our customers with one of the best trading strategies in the market and our broker recommendations are purely based in the expectation of good trading performance. We don´t receive rebates or any other kind of incentive from brokers.
Please contact us, if you need more details regarding our real money trading tests in several brokerage environments.
9- STRONG FINANCIAL COMMITMENT TO THE STRATEGY FROM SIGNAL VENDOR
At the moment of this notice (Jan 2017) Odysseia Capital had invested around 50.000 USD being traded by ARION strategy. This figure takes into account the Master account and a set of Slave accounts running at different brokers.
At Odysseia Capital we believe the best way to show our customers that we have high confidence in what we do, is by making hard evidence that we also have a clear and important direct financial commitment with the strategies we offer.
Please contact us for more details, and we will be able to direct you to other Myfxbook.com of real money accounts running ARION.
10- AFFORDABLE, COMPETITIVE SUBSCRIPTION PRICING
What to say about a subscription price of only 49.99 USD/month ?
In our launching phase here at SimpleTrader, we are offering a special discount of 50% for the first 4 trading weeks, placing the first subscription month at the incredible level of 24.99 USD. This will enable our customers to test the strategy for an incredible low cost.
This offer is only available here at Simpletrader.com so you should hurry up to subscribe, as you will not find it anywhere else!